Annotated List of Contexts where We Perceive Chance > 자유게시판

The phrase recreation concept refers to a really special setting, perhaps finest described as (8) Choosing strategy in a aggressive setting without figuring out rivals' choice of technique [sport principle].

The purpose is that the form of uncertainty is very particular: "opponents' alternative of strategy". Other than rock-paper-scissors, real-world situations of the precise recreation-theory setting are rare -- maybe closest is the individually called performs by offense and protection in American soccer -- however sport idea has been studied intensively as a "toy model" within aggressive Economics. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Let's flip to life as experienced by an individual, which will occupy several trains of thought. In everyday life, there are some occurrences that we recognize as likelihood. (9) Coincidences in on a regular basis life

reminiscent of receiving a telephone call from somebody you are about to call, or conversing with a stranger and finding they went to the same high school as you. Here is a pleasant assortment of reader-submitted tales from the Understanding Uncertainty site. (10) Minor good or unhealthy luck in everyday life

reminiscent of getting stuck in a visitors jam, or finding an in depth parking house in a usually crowded zone. (Major good or unhealthy luck just isn't "on a regular basis" so is addressed elsewhere). Having talked about luck in the retrospective sense -- likelihood that labored out in one's favor -- let me point out (11) Luck as superstition:

the assumption, or appearing on the idea, that certain activities or objects will create good or bad luck in the future with none rational causal mechanism. This relates to issues within the psychology of how we perceive chance, talked about later. Superstitious belief concerning luck is commonly aimed toward well being or money (which after all will seem later in this record) but in addition at romance. This reminds us of the role of chance within the human social world. Which of our acquaintances develop into friends or spouses needs to be our deliberate choice, but which specific people we come into contact with as new acquaintances in the primary place is basically a matter of probability: (12) Chance in making acquaintances.

The position that people have in affecting the character (personality, skills etc) of their children is a matter of eternal debate (one aspect represented by The Blank Slate), however few of us assume now we have much influence on our dad and mom' character; so from one's particular person viewpoint (13) The character of our relations

is basically outside one's management, in on a regular basis language "largely a matter of luck". In the same vein one would possibly say that the nation and 12 months of one's delivery, the socioeconomic status of 1's mother and father, and so on, are a matter of probability, however here we enter philosophically contentious territory -- see item (*4) for the place I draw the road. Next consider (14) The course of our careers.

A few of us might resolve as teenagers what career to pursue, and singlemindedly pursue it, but most of us in retrospect see a mixture of aware choices and probability -- an inspiring trainer, a selected job alternative, "being in the right place at the precise time", and many others. At this level the reader might start thinking: "Look, no facet of human life is completely predictable, so are you [the author] simply going to record every side of human life?" And the writer answers: "No. Imagine you overhear the one word lucky or unlucky in a conversation -- what kind of things may they be speaking about?" Recall that I am (partially) trying to listing the elements where folks understand that chance performs a job. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Allow us to flip to dangers as perceived by a person, and start with dangers to well being or life. See Risk for a nice account of 48 dangers faced by individuals. (15) Accidents

exemplified by vehicle crashes, are an obvious merchandise. Chance inside the rest of well being and sickness could be divided very finely, however I'll present only four classes, motivated partly by our Bing question information. (16) Possible future occurrence of diseases, for an individual

-- most cancers or heart disease, arthritis or Alzheimer's. (17) Uncertainty about prevention or causation of diseases

smoking, train, weight-reduction plan and so on. (18) Uncertain effectiveness of medical remedy or analysis on an individual.

See e.g. Tufte's Cancer survival rates: tables, graphics, and PP which is attention-grabbing for other causes too. Also "false positives" as a textbook matter. Finally, (19) Risks during pregnancy or of unwanted pregnancy

perhaps play a particular role in that most of us undergo pregnancy as mother or associate. Despite the fact that statistically much much less widespread, fiction and information media make us conscious of (20) Risks to health or wealth from crime.

Turning to uncertainty in monetary issues from a person's viewpoint, uncertainty about how much cash you'll earn, inherit or marry into is maybe coated by (13,14). Finance and insurance are huge businesses, so one might again divide into very fantastic categories. On the "investment" aspect, in lending cash one typically knows the curiosity rate "reward" however one accepts (21) Risks in lending cash

primarily the chance of not being paid back (bankruptcy), secondarily the "curiosity price risk" to capital of owning a long term bond. The opposite massive a part of "funding" is equity investment, which ranges from a conservative inventory mutual fund to being a silent companion in your brother-in-law's plumbing business to home possession, every representing (22) Risk and reward in equity possession.

On the "insurance coverage" facet (23) Insurable financial points of non-investment risk

similar to accidents, theft, liability, illness, incapacity, elder care, "life insurance coverage". Finally, in The new Financial Order Shiller makes the attention-grabbing level that nearly all of main monetary dangers to a typical American are in actual fact not at present insurable; one can't insure against a slowdown in economic progress over next decade, or regional home price declines, or your skills changing into redundant; let's name these (24) Non-insurable financial dangers.

Moving from finance to material possessions: (25) Reliability of manufactured items

Some manufactured items -- e.g. a sofa -- often put on out slowly, so we understand it as a matter of selection when to substitute them; others -- a light bulb is the iconic example -- fail unpredictably and we perceive it as a random event. Hard to fit into this checklist, but certainly a main subject of dialog ever since humans invented speech: (26) Weather

"30% likelihood of rain tomorrow" reminds us that weather provides a context where we do regularly hear or see numerical probabilities. This overlaps different categories; to most of us it is simply good or bad luck (a sport disrupted by rain, or a pleasing sunny day on the seashore) whereas in agriculture it's an exterior risk to business. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

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Now consider risks and chance from the viewpoint of an organization, as an example a commercial enterprise or a non-profit or an academic or social institution. Let me moderately arbitrarily give 4 classes. First, a brand new employee might become environment friendly or incompetent, key workers may die or depart, customers won't pay their bills, and so forth. Call this (30) Uncertainties in an organization's on a regular basis operation.

Next, the organization is competing with related organizations; whether specific competition in business, or implicit competition (one charity or religion implicitly competes with others for public attention). How nicely will the group fare in such competitions? Here are three aspects of this uncertainty. (31) Uncertain competence of group management:

Competing organizations may just be "better managed". (32) Explicit risks intentionally taken.

A high-tech start-up, or a household-run restaurant, are explicitly excessive-risk ventures; and in some industries (airplane manufacture; mining) established giant firms must sometimes make massive bets with solely an uncertain long-term payoff. (33) Long-term external changes

which can scale back demand on your product; technological change, vogue change, regulatory change, international terms of competitors changes, etc. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Now turn to uncertainty at the level of a nation or society. Sometime during the last century it has become implicitly agreed that a major perform of authorities is to facilitate quick-medium time period development of the financial system, which we know is unpredictable, so (34) Uncertainty about economic performance (unemployment, inflation, GDP) briefly-medium term future.

People in democracies are acutely aware of the uncertainty of the results of upcoming elections; on reflection, possibly what's vital isn't the title of the winner however what they do after election, so let me classify this rather verbosely as (35) Uncertainty about non-economic features of authorities coverage over the next few years

in "peaceful switch of energy" states. And historical past makes us conscious of many possible medium-term occasions, which I will put in a portmanteau category (36) Uncertainty about medium-time period nationwide and international changes: social upheaval, geopolitical competitors and conflict, effects of technological change, and so on.

A brief sampling of situations from (35-37) might be seen in Usage of the phrase "likelihood" within the Economist. Regarding the worldwide enviornment, here is an inventory of 36 "global dangers" for the subsequent 10 years, from the 2011 World Economic Forum (more particulars right here). The listing is divided into 5 categories -- economic, geopolitical, environmental, societal, technological. One an additionally discover analyses such as the 2010 U.K. Ministry of Defence's Global Strategic Trends -- Out to 2040 or the 2012 U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030. In the long run cultures change in fully unpredictable ways -- 21st century British tradition has scarcely any relation to that of the original Anglo-Saxons, so let's include (37) Unpredictable lengthy-term transformation of tradition

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Most phenomena perceived as random are random "when considered on some degree of organization" and one can try reductionism -- how does this phenomenon emerge from some lower level phenomena? It might or might not be helpful to attempt such reductionism; often the entire point of viewing a phenomenon as random is to keep away from having to think of the main points of such emergence. However it is commonly remarked that there are two situations of chance that appear irreducible. One is (41) Quantum mechanics

for which the textbook "observable" facet is Radioactive decay. The other is (42) Free will

by which I imply not one's own free will (which of course seems not in any respect random) but the fact that other folks's actions are intrinsically unpredictable. This juxtaposition has led to much hypothesis. For example Roger Penrose speculates that human consciousness is linked to quantum effects. And Conway and Kochen interpret their sturdy free will theorem as saying ``if certainly we humans have free will, then elementary particles already have their very own small share of this useful commodity. More precisely, if the experimenter can freely choose the directions through which to orient his apparatus in a sure measurement, then the particle's response ...... just isn't decided by all the earlier history of the universe." Turning from free will towards a more concrete philosophical situation, (43) Probability and ethics

cowl questions comparable to: is it moral to conceive a toddler with probability p of getting a sure fatal genetic disease? Only a small additional digression takes us to (44) Probability and the regulation

illustrated by the the well-known "beyond cheap doubt" criterion for criminal conviction, intentionally never quantified as a numerical chance. Is it true in fact (and may or not it's true in principle) that "reasoning under uncertainty" is done in another way in authorized contexts than in different contexts? Technical material might be found within the journal Law, Probability & Risk. Recall that DNA profiling is one setting the place numerical probabilities are introduced into court. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

To what extent uncertainty about data must be perceived in terms of likelihood is a type of contentious philosophical questions. Let me use the commonsense rule: does it feel pure to make use of the phrase "likely" in a given context? Via this rule we should always include (45) Uncertain validity of scientific theories

exemplified by Many of the noticed enhance in world common temperatures because the mid-twentieth century may be very likely because of the noticed enhance in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Similarly we should always embrace (46) Uncertainty about historical occasions

such because it is probably going that [during 1909-1913] Hitler experienced and doable that he shared the final antisemitism widespread among center-class German nationalists. And there's a really broad class (47) Uncertainty about judgement in everyday life or occupation

Is that politician telling the truth? Would A or B be a better employee? Another category, which appears to be like strange at first sight, is (48) Uncertainty about simply-checkable facts

If you wish to call a good friend and assume you most likely remember the right number, then you need to resolve whether to name that number or to look up the right quantity. So this is a context where there is a direct link between likelihood assessments and precise actions. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

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The distinction between probability and statistics is considerably arbitrary. Some previous examples characteristic explicitly in statistics textbooks, and in many "on a regular basis life" examples the only way to guess future probabilities is from implicitly "statistical" data of the past. Listed here are some more explicitly statistical examples. (51) (Mis)use of inhabitants statistics as probabilities for a person.

When conceiving a child one can use the inhabitants statistics (about 50% of kids are girls) to say that the possibility your baby will likely be a girl is about 50%. But it is a moderately unusual instance. Consider as an alternative demise by lightning; the U.S. inhabitants statistics are about 1 per 12 million individuals per year. However, pointing to a given individual and saying "your chance of demise by lightning in the next yr is about 1 in 5 million" is just flawed; the possibility varies enormously between totally different individuals, in response to their propensity to be outdoors during thunderstorms. Perhaps most instance are intermediate between these extremes. U.S. '"life expectancy" tables put the prospect of a 21-12 months previous living previous 70 at about 77%. How this applies to a typical particular person is a matter of judgement; someone with no seen well being issues presumably has a barely larger survival chance. (52) Statistical estimates of probabilities for a person, based on data for that particular person and inhabitants statistics concerning relationships between elements

This is a big subject, exemplified by credit score scores which seek to predict your probability of defaulting on a mortgage using data about you and the past report of related people; or the algorithms by which amazon.com provides you options primarily based on your past purchases and looking; cf. the Netflix Prize . Originally primarily based on classical statistical techniques like multiple regression, it is nowadays typically regarded extra as part of the theory of algorithms below names akin to machine studying . (53) Repeatable likelihood experiments.

Here I am cheating by stating a conceptual class somewhat than specific real-world setting. "Dropping a thumbtack, and seeing if it ends level-up or point-down" is the iconic classroom example of a repeatable probability experiment, generalizing (yyy - video games of likelihood primarily based on artifacts with physical symmetry) because we don't have an a priori information of the probabilities. Items (yyy - Random sampling for representativeness) and (yyy - Randomized controlled trials) match the category, as does the classical matter of measurement error. The category is conceptually distinguished for 2 causes. Dogmatic frequentists assert that is the only context wherein numerical probabilities make sense. Second, a lot basic mathematical probability considerations conclusions (legislation of giant numbers, central restrict theorem) of the speculation that observations are unbiased identically distributed random variables, the mathematical formalization of "repeatable probability experiment". (54) Residuals (errors) in estimation.

Abstractly, if we try to estimate some close to-future numerical amount, and then observe its precise worth, then the "error" in estimation becomes a identified amount, the residual. If our estimation process were the very best then the residuals would be (in a sure sense that may be made precise) ``purely random", as a result of any systematic non-randomness may very well be used to improve estimation. This context covers many phenomena, from errors in forecasting tomorrow's temperature to deviations from the "spread" in Football. (55) Probability as methodology within mathematical statistics

I'm intentionally attempting to exclude mathematical methodology from this list, so I will not elaborate on the subject above. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

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Several instances of probability in science have already appeared on this list, however let me now try a extra systematic list of situations. In biology we're all acquainted (youngsters could also be boys or ladies!) with (61) Random inheritance of genes by offspring from parents

and the related discipline of mathematical inhabitants genetics . Continuing, the two reverse ends of a spectrum from microevolution to macroevolution are (62) Random mutation as the underside-level mechanism on which evolution by pure choice operates

(63) Unpredictability (over hundreds of thousands of years) of origin and extinction of species

In the physics there are two opposite paradigm contexts for randomness. (64) Kinetic theory of gases.

The academic self-discipline statistical physics seeks extra broadly to study the conduct of large populations of "entities" by way of macroscopic likelihood descriptions relatively than detailed microscopic interactions. See e.g. this temporary list of topics. Let's include Brownian movement right here. (65) Deterministic chaos

refers to a system governed by deterministic rules however so delicate to initial situations that its long-run behavior is successfully random. As arithmetic, it is fascinating that numerous rules (both utterly artificial, or over-simplified models of real phenomena) do indeed have this property. Alas, widespread accounts vastly over-sell the usefulness of thinking by way of chaos fairly than normal unpredictability. Earthquakes, for example, are in precept deterministic but at current we can only make probabilistic predictions of their incidence. Loosely connected to the "science" theme is (66) Lucky discoveries (serendipity).

The word serendipity is generally used merely as a colorful variant of luck, but let me use it in the slim context of a discovery wherein luck played a noticeable role, an iconic example being the invention of penicillin, with different scientific examples retold in Serendipity: Accidental Discoveries in Science. See additionally the taxonomy on this page. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

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Let's move on to the engineered world. The concept that it might be useful to view e.g. writing as if it have been someway random is at first sight bizarre -- my deliberate alternative of phrases to write down right here appears the other of "monkeys on typewriters" randomness. But there is a few statistical regularity in e.g. how usually writers use the word "the", forming the premise of what is fairly misleadingly called Information principle however more concretely (71) Data compression.

English language is "inefficient" within the sense that the majority letter strings like JQTOMXDW KKYSC don't have any which means. But one can "code" (in this context a public, not secret, code) English textual content so that the coded textual content is shorter than the uncoded text. The idea of how properly this can be completed is based on modeling textual content as having a certain type of randomness (stationarity: not as restrictive as ``monkeys on typewriters") and it's philosophically interesting that algorithmic schemes designed to be optimal relative to this theory really work nicely on real English. (72) Signal noise

most familiarly radio "static", refers to some (usually small) undesirable errors or disturbance to a designed bodily system. These are sometimes modeled as random -- in the event that they have been predictably non-random one could try to engineer them away (cf. 54 above). (73) Software utilizing randomness.

It's typically technically useful to use randomized algorithms in settings without explicit randomness; also a doable criterion for choosing betwen algorithms is to imagine the enter data will be random and select the algorithm which might be better "on average" -- that is probabilistic analysis of algorithms. Monte Carlo strategies are extensively used in lots of sciences for numerical examine of models. Such software program usually uses (pseudo)random number generators (RNGs) to generate "artificial" fairly than "true" random numbers. Online poker playing, as an illustration, clearly has to make use of RNGs somewhat than physical card shuffling, and certainly websites now boast about the quality of their RNGs. Less apparent, fashionable slot machines are controlled by RNGs without any "bodily randomness" of revolving cylinders. For a current (2019) sophisticated RNG scheme see the League of Entropy, which describes makes use of akin to election auditing, lotteries, distributed ledger platforms. There are on a regular basis occurrences that we don't often recognize as likelihood. There are numerous providers that we would like to use at whatever time we select -- making a telephone call, driving, going to a grocery retailer -- and the associated "system" is designed to handle typical demand, but could be overloaded if too many people occurred to need the service at the same time; clean functioning relies on the truth that over quick time periods the unpredictable demand is spread roughly uniformly, because it would be beneath easy random fashions. Let me name this (74) Customer service system regularity.

Another kind of on a regular basis phenomenon is exemplified by elevators or buses tending to bunch up; and by stop-go motion in visitors jams or in long waiting traces. Such phenomena occur in techniques that (as a side-impact to their major function) act to amplify underlying minor randomness into qualitatively predictable larger-scale habits; call this (75) Everyday incidental amplification of randomness.

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We've already mentioned some "economics" examples from the person's viewpoint. Probably the most intensively studied quantitative facet of actual-world randomness is probably (81) Short-term fluctuations of equity costs, change charges and so forth.

The random stroll/ Brownian motion mannequin works reasonably effectively though not completely. The very best recognized aspect of this theory is the famous Black-Scholes components for possibility pricing. Conceptually, such fashions are primarily based on the concept costs reply rationally to new information. An reverse notion, beneath the phrase (82) Animal spirits

is that a lot investment/hypothesis activity is basically irrational. It's a short segue to the study inside Psychology of how folks suppose about chance and threat, a topic associated with Daniel Kahneman and colleagues, and surveyed in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. I'll cut up this into two categories. (83) Intuitive inferences involving chance which can be incorrect (in line with uncontroversial principle).

Typical cases: believing small samples are representative, assigning causes to observations explicable as probability (regression fallacy, coincidences), mis-estimating probabilities by ignoring base rates, or by the availability heuristic. (84) Psychological elements of creating choices beneath uncertainty.

Whether individuals ought to act in accordance with utility concept is debatable; the many ways through which they do not have been extensively studied. Prospect concept predicts when folks will likely be risk averse and when danger-in search of; choices are influenced by framing results, endowment effect, remorse or accountability, and so on ; weights attached to outcomes are not linear in probabilities. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

There's a quite broad class of academic work I will name (87) Applied likelihood toy fashions

Only a few fascinating phenomena are "purely random". So, making a mathematical model of a non-deterministic phenomenon entails specifying some combination of deterministic guidelines and randomness. Within the categories above I have attempted to say a cross-section of the foremost tutorial disciplines the place such chance models have been studied and are (not less than somewhat) lifelike and helpful. One can discover models for an incredible vary of different subjects, but the realism of such models varies vastly. Consider a setting where we search "common understanding" of a phenomenon for which we do not have a well-understood science/engineering background, and we do not want to be tied to some particular case during which we've empirical information. In such a setting one can just invent some guidelines and study the mathematical habits of hypothetical processes obeying those rules. A typical instance, often present in recent well-liked science accounts, considerations small-world networks and the six levels of separation assertion. Studying such "toy models" is ok as pure mathematics, but relating to them as offering cases of chance working in the real world is extra problematical. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

The next line of thought, "life, the universe, and every thing", would not actually match our seting of ``small classes of contexts where probability plays a job" (so could also be cut in a later version of this listing) however is fascinating to say someplace. Standard theory says that atoms formed about 379,000 years after the large Bang, at which time the mass density of the Universe was roughly homogeneous however with random small fluctuations. So to a hypothetical observer instantaneously after the big Bang, the evolution of the Universe as much as this time might be predictable in outline, apart from these (91) Spatial fluctuations in mass density of the early Universe.

These fluctuations have been crucial for subsequent emergence of structure, although theory implicitly suggests that a special realization would have made no qualitative difference. Consider subsequent a hypothetical observer at 379,000 years. According to straightforward concept, the following qualitative evolution of the Universe -- formation of galaxies and stars and photo voltaic techniques -- can be predictable in outline. Perhaps less predictable, and hence an occasion of probability, is (92) Formation of an Earth that was physically hospitable to life.

There is an ordinary idea of formation of the solar system starting with an interstellar molecular cloud undergoing gravitational collapse, and ending with a just lately formed Earth at round four billion years in the past. The purpose is that this formation of Earth gave a planet that was bodily hospitable to life; we do not know the way common is the formation of such "physically hospitable to life" planets, or indeed what is definitely required to be "bodily hospitable to life". If we persist with the idea that life on Earth originated on Earth, pretty quickly after its formation, then such origination (on a planet "bodily hospitable to life") is presumably not an unlikely event. Acceptance of the speculation of evolution often means individuals take with no consideration the notion that straightforward life is likely, or a minimum of not very unlikely, to turn into complex. But this isn't self-evident, and the Rare Earth Hypothesis asserts that the best way complicated life truly developed on Earth required an "improbable mixture of astrophysical and geological occasions and circumstances"; if so, then we will regard (93) Evolution of complex life on Earth

as an occasion of probability. Granted complex life, to a hypothetical observer at any given time between (say) the Cambrian explosion and (say) 10 million years in the past, what can be the chance of future emergence of some species that we'd acknowledge as ``human-style clever"? It is a matter of debate; though it appears to me that, no less than from the Cambrian viewpoint, the emergence of any species similar to humans was not predictable. Asking about "evolution of some clever species" invites distraction from those that insist that dolphins or poodles are intelligent. Perhaps extra useful is to take some listing of Human Universals that every one current human cultures share; then regard the instance of ``the possibility event that actually happened" as (94) Evolution of a primitive human society with the given record of universals.

(Precisely, it's not logically needed that there was an ancestral society with the identical universals, however the latest frequent ancestral society must have had a least a predisposition thereto). Next consider a hypothetical observer of such a primitive human society, The truth that preliterate human societies in several components of the world of underwent many roughly parallel cultural and technological developments means that the very broad define of such developments was predictable; what is the "instance of likelihood" are the actual types of languages, know-how growth, political entities, social customs and so on, all through recorded historical past and in the present day. (95) Development of the actual forms of contemporary technological civilization and culture.

Looking to the long run, there is a very various set of (96) Global catastrophic risks

to contemporary civilization, from asteroid impression to international warming to clever machines to worldwide totalitarian authorities. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

(100) Chance in fiction.

This is a strange item for a "actual world" record. But as discussed further right here, fiction typically exploits likelihood for dramatic impact, so a part of our notion of how chance operates should derive, if solely unconsciously, from fiction. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

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The list has intentionally been very broad in what is considered an occasion of chance, but the place should one draw the road? In fact this will depend on one's philosophical stance. Here are some things that (I assert) are usually not cases of chance. The rationale I disqualify these situations is that there is no such thing as a implicit observer (xxx hyperlink not written). (*1) Fictional settings.

I assert that it does not make sense to discuss probabilities within fictional settings. Talking about "the possibility Bart Simpson will get injured in the next new episode of The Simpsons" is smart as a press release about the scriptwriters' intentions, that are unknown to you, but doesn't make sense "within the fictional world of The Simpsons". Analyzing fictional characters as in the event that they were actual quickly turns into foolish. What's a good bet, to Bugs Bunny? What premiums ought to a life insurance coverage firm ask for a Jedi knight? (*2) Mathematical conjectures.

In case you specify some nicely-recognized unsolved mathematical drawback, it actually makes sense to speak about "the chance that a (usually accepted) answer is revealed before 2020" -- in any case, this is the sort of factor one can wager on. On the other hand -- imagining a "sure or no" drawback -- I assert it does not make strict sense to discuss "the prospect the answer is "yes"". (*3) The chance of a Universe favorable to life coming into being.

To me, this only makes sense to a hypothetical observer exterior the Universe -- and where precisely do you think about this observer to be? (More comments here). (*4) The chance you had been born.

Saying "you and that i are fortunate to have been born within the twentieth century, reasonably than some earlier century in which conditions of life were usually worse" conveys some which means. But what? It is estimated that about 6% of the humans ever born are alive immediately. I assert it's not correct to interpret that knowledge as implying ``you being alive at present is the occurence of a random event that had an a priori likelihood of 6%". For this requires there to be a notion of "you" earlier than you are conceived, for an observer to make an opportunity assertion about. Which presupposes some unconventional theology -- God first creates all human souls and later randomly assigns them to biological people.

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